A Dose-finding Study of the Bromodomain (Brd) Inhibitor OTX015/ Birabresib (MK-8628) in Hematologic Malignancies (MK-8628-001)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-01-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: leukemiaacuterelapsingdiseaseaml
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantmkdlbcllymphoma
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 21 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Dose Exploration Study With Birabresib (MK-8628) in Participants With Selected Hematologic Malignancies (MK-8628-005) NCT02698189 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
• AZD4573 in Novel Combinations With Anti-cancer Agents in Patients With Advanced Blood Cancer NCT04630756 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• A Phase 1 Study Evaluating CB-5083 in Subjects With Lymphoid Hematological Malignancies NCT02223598 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
• Nivolumab and Ibrutinib in Treating Patients With Relapsed, Refractory, or High-Risk Untreated Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia, Small Lymphocytic Lymphoma, or Richter Transformation NCT02420912 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• A Study of TAK-659 in Combination With Bendamustine (+/-Rituximab), Gemcitabine, Lenalidomide, or Ibrutinib for the Treatment of Participants With Advanced Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma NCT02954406 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.