Comparison of Aliskiren vs Negative Controls on Aortic Stiffness in Patients With MFS

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: aorticmrihearttherapyangiotensin
  Phrases that lowered it: the effecteffect ofopen labelmedical historyscreening
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 2.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 79 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 76.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 14 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 29523 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 38 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Randomized, Double-blind Study for the Evaluation of the Effect of Losartan Versus Placebo on Aortic Root Dilatation in Patients With Marfan Syndrome Under Treatment With Beta-blockers NCT00782327 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Study of the Efficacy of Losartan on Aortic Dilatation in Patients With Marfan Syndrome NCT00763893 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials terminated
• Losartan Versus Atenolol for the Treatment of Marfan Syndrome NCT00593710 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• Beta Blockers and Angiotensin Receptor Blockers in Bicuspid Aortic Valve Disease Aortopathy (BAV Study) NCT01202721 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
• Aliskiren Effect on Aortic Plaque Progression NCT01417104 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.