Sodium Nitrite in Lung Transplant Patients to Minimize the Risk of Pulmonary Graft Dysfunction

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: transplantdonorsubjectsrecipienttransplantation
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsexcludedmmevaluateopen
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 67.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate if Inhaled Nitric Oxide Improves Liver Function After Transplantation NCT00582010 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Study of Cyclosporine Inhalation Solution (CIS) in Improving Bronchiolitis Obliterans Syndrome-Free Survival Following Lung Transplantation NCT00755781 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• Studying the Treatment Effect of Pirfenidone in Chronic Lung Allograft Dysfunction (STOP-CLAD) NCT03473340 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials terminated
• Study in Intensive Care Patients Regarding the Effect of Inhaled AP-301 After Primary Graft Dysfunction After Lung Transplantation NCT02095626 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Transplanting Hepatitis C Lungs Into Negative Lung Recipients NCT03724149 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.