Extended Venous Thromboembolism Prophylaxis Comparing Rivaroxaban to Aspirin Following Total Hip and Knee Arthroplasty

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: kneemetastaticcancertotaleligible
  Phrases that lowered it: investigatordayhistorylong termaspirin
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• VTE Prevention Following Total Hip and Knee Arthroplasty NCT04075240 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• Comparative Study of Prophylactic Agent for Venous Thromboembolism After Total Knee Arthroplasty NCT02271399 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Switching Drug Therapy for the Prevention of Blood Clot Formation From Enoxaparin to Rivaroxaban After Orthopedic Surgery for Either Total Hip or Total Knee Replacement NCT01094886 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Blood-sparing During Hip Prosthesis Surgery With Exacyl® in Patients Treated With Rivaroxaban NCT02403596 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Safety of DAbigatran and RIvaroxaban Versus NAdroparin in the Prevention of Venous Thromboembolism After Knee Arthroplasty Surgery NCT01431456 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.