Open-label Phase 3 BTK Inhibitor Ibrutinib vs Chlorambucil Patients 65 Years or Older With Treatment-naive CLL or SLL

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: leukemiarandomizationevidencein siturisk
  Phrases that lowered it: open labeldrugml20multicenter open
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 22.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 220 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Multi-Center Study of Ibrutinib in Combination With Obinutuzumab Versus Chlorambucil in Combination With Obinutuzumab in Patients With Treatment naïve Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (CLL) or Small Lymphocytic Lymphoma (SLL) NCT02264574 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of the Combination of Tirabrutinib and Idelalisib With and Without Obinutuzumab in Adults With Relapsed or Refractory Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (CLL) NCT02968563 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Zanubrutinib in Relapsed or Refractory Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia/Small Lymphocytic Lymphoma NCT03206918 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of the Combination of Tirabrutinib and Entospletinib With and Without Obinutuzumab in Adults With Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (CLL) NCT02983617 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• Ibrutinib, Fludarabine, and Pembrolizumab in High-Risk or Relapsed/Refractory Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia/Small Lymphocytic Lymphoma NCT03204188 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.