A Biomarker Study in Patients With HER2-negative Metastatic Breast Cancer Treated With Bevacizumab and Paclitaxel

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticcellpriordayscarcinoma
  Phrases that lowered it: the trialbreastresistancecombinationbleeding
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 30.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 11947 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study To Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety Of Bevacizumab, and Associated Biomarkers, In Combination With Paclitaxel Compared With Paclitaxel Plus Placebo as First-line Treatment Of Patients With Her2-Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01663727 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• Bevacizumab Plus Paclitaxel Optimization Study With Interventional Aintenance Endocrine Therapy in Breast Cancer NCT01989780 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Bevacizumab in Combination With Chemotherapy in the Neo-adjuvant Setting for HER2 (-) Breast Cancer NCT01985841 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Bevacizumab (Avastin) in Combination With Neoadjuvant Treatment Regimens in Participants With Primary Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 (HER2) Negative Breast Cancer NCT00773695 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Weekly Paclitaxel/Carboplatin/Bevacizumab as First Line Therapy for Triple Negative Breast Cancer NCT00691379 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.