First-in-man Dose Escalation Study of BAY2010112 in Patients With Prostate Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-09-26, after 2012-11-02 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-09-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerheartdiseaseintravenousthe patient
Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsdailyefficacygroupsubjects -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 96 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 454 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 454 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 96 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability,Pharmacokinetics, and Antitumor Activity of a Thorium-227 Labeled Antibody-chelator Conjugate Alone and in Combination With Darolutamide, in Patients With Metastatic Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT03724747 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
- Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Efficacy of Acapatamab in Subjects With mCRPC NCT03792841 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials terminated
- ESK981 and Nivolumab for the Treatment of Metastatic Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT04159896 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
- A Study of AMG 340 in Subjects With Metastatic Castrate-Resistant Prostate Carcinoma NCT04740034 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials terminated
- A Phase 1/1b Study of MEDI3726 in Adults Subjects With Metastatic Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT02991911 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.