A Proof of Mechanism Study With GSK2126458 in Patients With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (355 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-07-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjecttolerabilityin subjectscurrentprior
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetybloodmmhgdosingml of
• Minimum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1728 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 340 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Dose-Response Relationship of Multiple Doses of GSK2269557 Administered as a Dry Powder to Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Patients NCT02130635 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• GSK961081 Alone and With Fluticasone Furoate (FF), Phase 1 (Ph1), Single Dose Regimen (SD), Repeat Dose Regimen (RD), Pharmacokinetic (PK) Study in Healthy Volunteer (HV) NCT02666287 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• To Evaluate Effects of GSK2256294 on Pulmonary Artery Pressure in Healthy Volunteers Under Normoxic and Hypoxic Conditions NCT02262689 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• First Time in Human (FTIH) Study of GSK3008348 in Healthy Volunteers and Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Patients NCT02612051 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Effects of GSK573719 (LAMA) and GW642444 (LABA)Administered Individually and Concurrently in Healthy Japanese Subjects NCT00976144 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.