Pancreas Cancer: Molecular Profiling as a Guide to Therapy Before and After Surgery (Personalized Medicine)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 37% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-04-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: or equalequal toadenocarcinomapancreatictumor
  Phrases that lowered it: patientpatientsmgtrialreceive
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 13 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 14076 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 25 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 78547 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 23 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 9 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Perioperative Therapy for Resectable Pancreatic Cancer NCT00609336 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Preoperative Chemotherapy (Gemcitabine and Erlotinib) With or Without Radiation Therapy NCT00766636 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Gemcitabine Hydrochloride, and Radiation Therapy in Patients With Borderline Resectable Pancreatic Cancer NCT01897454 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated
• Perioperative Therapy for Resectable and Borderline-Resectable Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma With Molecular Correlates NCT02723331 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Gemcitabine and Erlotinib Before and After Surgery in Treating Patients With Pancreatic Cancer That Can Be Removed by Surgery NCT00733746 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.