Efficacy and Safety Study of Probucol in Patients With Diabetic Nephropathy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (192 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectscarcinomasubjectventricularprior
  Phrases that lowered it: trialvisitand safetyefficacy andsafety of
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 13 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• INV-144 Versus Losartan in Hypertension and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients With Macroalbuminuria NCT01398423 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Phase IIb Clinical Trial for the Efficacy and Safety by CU01-1001 for 24 Weeks in Type 2 DM Patients With Albuminuria NCT05718375 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate ASP8232 as Add-On Therapy to Angiotensin Converting Enzyme Inhibitor (ACEi) or Angiotensin Receptor Blocker (ARB) in Reducing Albuminuria in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes and Chronic Kidney Disease NCT02358096 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability and Renal Effects of APX-115 in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes and Nephropathy NCT04534439 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Study of INV-202 in Patients With Diabetic Kidney Disease NCT05514548 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.