Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of ACZ885 on Leg Artery Structure in Patients With Peripheral Artery Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-08-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: arterysafety tolerabilityperipheralplacebo controlledblind placebo
  Phrases that lowered it: weeksstudyopenstartbody
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 298 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 71.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 198 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of LLG783 in Patients With Peripheral Artery Disease (PAD) and Intermittent Claudication NCT03194776 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Safety & Effectiveness on Vascular Structure and Function of ACZ885 in Atherosclerosis and Either T2DM or IGT Patients NCT00995930 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Zibotentan, an Endothelin Receptor Antagonist, Patients With Intermittent Claudication NCT01890135 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• A Study of CK-2017357 in Patients With Peripheral Artery Disease and Symptomatic Claudication NCT01131013 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Assess the Safety and Effectiveness of Once Daily PMR Compared to Twice Daily Pletaal® in Patients With Intermittent Claudication NCT06886620 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.