Dose-Titration Study of Sevelamer Carbonate in Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) Patients on Hemodialysis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (181 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: bowelconstipationhemodialysisseveregreater than
  Phrases that lowered it: visitldland safetysafety ofefficacy and
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 29 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 85.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 144 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Randomised, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of Sevelamer Carbonate Tablets Dosed Three Times a Day in Hyperphosphataemic Chronic Kidney Disease Patients Not on Dialysis NCT00833768 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated
• A Phase 2 Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of VS-505(AP301) to Treat Hyperphosphatemia in Hemodialysis Patients NCT04551300 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• An Efficacy and Safety Study of Sevelamer Carbonate in Hyperphosphatemic Pediatric Participants With Chronic Kidney Disease NCT01574326 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• An Open Label, Dose Titration Study of Sevelamer Carbonate Tablets & Powder in Hyperphosphatemic CKD Patients NCT02332811 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Efficacy of SBR759 in Lowering Serum Phosphate Levels in Chronic Kidney Disease Patients on Hemodialysis NCT00704483 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.