Cinacalcet for Fibroblast Growth Factor 23 (FGF23)-Mediated Hypophosphatemia (Hypophosphatemic Rickets)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (651 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2016-12-31, after 2012-11-16 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: tumordltherapygrowthserum
Phrases that lowered it: kgparticipantsbodyhistoryblood -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- not given (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 31 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 3.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Use of NPSP558 in the Treatment of Hypoparathyroidism NCT00732615 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
- HEXT (Hypo EXTended): Effect of PTH on Skeleton in Hypoparathyroidism NCT01199614 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- Recombinant Human rhPTH(1-34) VS Association Alfacalcidol/Hydrochlorothiazide in Severe Primary Hypoparathyroidism NCT02824718 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
- Study to Assess the Blood Concentrations and Actions of Recombinant Human Parathyroid Hormone (rhPTH [1-84]) When Given Once and Twice Daily to Participants With Hypoparathyroidism NCT02781844 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- Safety, Pharmacokinetics and Efficacy of MBX 2109 in Patients With Hypoparathyroidism NCT06465108 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.