Study on Autologous Osteoblastic Cells Implantation in Hypotrophic Non-Union Fractures
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (370 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2019-04-30, after 2012-06-30 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellstreatment ofthe treatmentbonepatients
Phrases that lowered it: infectedimpairmentand safetydiseasesefficacy -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Keywords listed: 6 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Phase 1/2a Study on Allogeneic Osteoblastic Cells Implantation in Delayed-Union Fractures NCT02020590 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- A Comparative Study of 2 Doses of BM Autologous H-MSC+Biomaterial vs Iliac Crest AutoGraft for Bone Healing in Non-Union NCT03325504 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- Phase 2a Study on Intravenous Infusion of Autologous Osteoblastic Cells in Severe Osteoporosis NCT02061995 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of Efficacy and Safety of Autologous MSCs Combined to Biomaterials to Enhance Bone Healing NCT01842477 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
- Mesenchymal Stromal Cells for the Treatment of Non-union Fractures of Long Bones NCT02230514 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.