Intravenous Transplantation of Mesenchymal Stem Cell in Patients With ALS
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (651 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2014-03-31, after 2013-01-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellmarrowintravenoussurvivalbone
Phrases that lowered it: safety ofdiseasesmesenchymal stemneurological26 -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 25 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 25 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 13 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, metabolic
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Intrathecal Transplantation of Mesenchymal Stem Cell in Patients With ALS NCT01771640 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- Intravenous Injection of Adipose Derived Mesenchymal Stem Cell for ALS NCT02492516 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Autologous Multipotent Mesenchymal Stromal Cells in the Treatment of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis NCT03828123 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy Study of Autologous Bone Marrow Derived Stem Cell Treatment in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis NCT01363401 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Effect of Intrathecal Administration of Hematopoietic Stem Cells in Patients With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) NCT01933321 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.