Phase 2 Efficacy Trial of OLT1177 Gel in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Pain Associated With OA of the Knee

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (240 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapyrandomizationhoursscoreunless
  Phrases that lowered it: kneescreeningosteoarthritisjointoa
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 35 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 20 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of OLT1177 Gel to Treat Moderate to Severe OA Knee Pain NCT02104050 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of G001 in Patients With Osteoarthritis (OA) of the Knee NCT05007808 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of AMZ001 for the Treatment of Knee Osteoarthritis Symptoms NCT06693648 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Study of Intra-articular Injections vs Placebo in Patients With Pain From Osteoarthritis of the Knee NCT01887678 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of ACP-044 in Subjects With Pain Associated With Osteoarthritis of the Knee NCT05008835 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.