Study of 5-FU, Oxaliplatin, & Lapatinib Combined With Radiation Therapy to Treat HER2 Positive Esophagogastric Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 28% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2015-02-28, after 2013-02-28 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: her2stagecancerneoadjuvantconcurrent
Phrases that lowered it: patients whofemalebearinggrapefruitchild -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 10 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7314 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 36158 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 84 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 84 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 10 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 36158 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 7314 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 89.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 20.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- fluorouracil, lapatinib, oxaliplatin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Lapatinib With Carboplatin and Paclitaxel in Esophagus and Gastroesophageal Junction (GEJ) NCT01395537 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
- Trial of Lapatinib Versus Lapatinib With Capecitabine in Her2+ Metastatic Gastro-Esophageal Cancer NCT01145404 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials terminated
- iTTo for Treatment Naive Advanced Gastric or Gastroesophageal Junction (GEJ) Adenocarcinoma NCT04808791 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
- Study of Afuresertib Combined With Paclitaxel in Gastric Cancer NCT02240212 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
- CAPOX, Bevacizumab and Trastuzumab for Patients With HER2-Positive Metastatic Esophagogastric Cancer NCT01191697 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.