GVAX vs. Placebo for MDS/AML After Allo HSCT

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 18% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-11-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: leukemiaamlmdscancercell
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsstemtrialtransplantationclinical
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 40 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 161 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 107997 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 22334 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Vaccination With GM-K562 Cells in Patients With Advanced Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) or Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) After Allogeneic Hematopoetic Stem Cell Transplantation NCT00809250 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Vaccine Therapy in Treating Patients With Acute Myeloid Leukemia in Complete Remission NCT00963521 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Blockade of PD-1 in Conjunction With the Dendritic Cell/AML Vaccine Following Chemotherapy Induced Remission NCT01096602 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• WT1 Immunity Via DNA Fusion Gene Vaccination in Haematological Malignancies by Intramuscular Injection Followed by Intramuscular Electroporation NCT01334060 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• WT1 Vaccine Treatment of Patients in Remission From Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) or Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (ALL) NCT01266083 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.