A Dose Ranging Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of GSK2586184 in Patients With Chronic Plaque Psoriasis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (240 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-03-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: psoriasisplaqueeligibleheartof study
  Phrases that lowered it: clinical trialhealthyvisitevaluate theto evaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1726 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 342 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 11 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics, and Efficacy of Repeat Doses of GSK2982772 in Subjects With Psoriasis NCT02776033 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• A Dose-Finding Study of GSK2894512 Cream in Subjects With Plaque Psoriasis NCT02564042 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Benefit and Safety of GSK2982772 in Moderate to Severe Psoriasis Participants NCT04316585 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Roflumilast Cream 0.3% in Subjects With Plaque Psoriasis: a Phase 3 Study NCT06648772 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Prurisol Administered Orally for Active Moderate to Severe Chronic Plaque Psoriasis NCT02949388 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.