Probiotics: Prevention of Severe Pneumonia and Endotracheal Colonization Trial (PROSPECT): A Feasibility Clinical Trial
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-01-31, after 2013-10-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: lungsmallpatientshearthours
Phrases that lowered it: evaluatetrialtermstudyadults -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 40 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 4 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 68 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 40 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Probiotic LGG for Prevention of Side Effects in Patients Undergoing Chemoradiation for Gastrointestinal Cancer NCT01790035 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials terminated
- Probiotics in Enteral Feeding in Critically Ill Patients NCT01792401 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Impact of Emergency Department Probiotic (LGG) Treatment of Pediatric Gastroenteritis NCT01773967 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
- Study of LRG-002 Hard Capsules (Lek d.d., Slovenia) Used in the Prophylaxis of Antibiotic-associated Diarrhea in Adults. NCT04321460 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Safety of Lactobacillus Rhamnosus GG Vs. Placebo in Elderly Subjects Receiving Trivalent Inactivated Influenza Vaccine NCT01368029 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.