Extension Study of Etelcalcetide in the Treatment of Secondary Hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) on Hemodialysis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-07-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectthe longlong termin subjectsamg
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andsafety ofparticipate inwith chronic
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 91 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Extension Study of Etelcalcetide for Treatment of Secondary Hyperparathyroidism in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease on Hemodialysis NCT02102204 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Etelcalcetide (AMG 416) in the Treatment of Secondary Hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease on Hemodialysis NCT01785849 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Etelcalcetide (AMG 416) in the Treatment of Secondary Hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) on Hemodialysis NCT01788046 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Open-label Study to Assess the Long-term Safety and Efficacy of Etelcalcetide (Also Known as AMG 416 or KAI-4169) in Patients With Secondary Hyperparathyroidism NCT01576146 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials terminated
• Head-to-Head Study of Etelcalcetide (AMG 416) and Cinacalcet NCT01896232 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.