Improving Pain Management and Long Term Outcomes Following High Energy Orthopedic Trauma (Pain Study)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientspatientgradeinjuryfailure
  Phrases that lowered it: moderatedrugstypeprescriptioninclusive
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 68.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 15573 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of ACP-044 for the Treatment of Acute Postoperative Pain Following Bunionectomy NCT04855240 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Ibuprofen Versus Ketorolac by Mouth in the Treatment of Acute Pain From Osteoarticular Trauma NCT04133623 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• A Controlled Study to Determine the Efficacy and Safety of CL-108 5 mg for Acute Pain and the Prevention of OINV NCT03657810 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Effect of Intravenous Morphine vs Intravenous Ibuprofen and Acetaminophen vs Intravenous Ibuprofen NCT05630222 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate a Fixed Combination of Acetaminophen/Naproxen Sodium in Acute Postoperative Pain Following Bunionectomy NCT05868122 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.