A Study Comparing AZD2014 vs Everolimus in Patients With Metastatic Renal Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 25% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2015-11-30, after 2013-02-28 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “efficacy”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerkidneymripatients mustimaging
Phrases that lowered it: trialopen labeldrug20to investigate -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 12 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 90.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 5213 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, urogenital: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 9 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 11.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 12 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 5213 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2256 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 90.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 28.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- everolimus, vistusertib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Everolimus Versus Sunitinib in Non-Clear Cell Renal Cell Carcinoma NCT01185366 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials terminated
- Dose Escalation Study Investigating Everolimus and Dovitinib in Metastatic Clear Cell Renal Cancer NCT01714765 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
- A Study of Abemaciclib in Combination With Sunitinib in Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma NCT03905889 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
- Everolimus as Second-line Therapy in Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma NCT01491672 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
- Sequential Therapy in Metastatic Renal Cell Carinoma NCT01731158 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.