Methadone vs Magnesium in Spinal Fusion
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 24% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (53 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2016-09-30, after 2013-09-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: severeanalgesiapostoperativepotentialpresence
Phrases that lowered it: the efficacypatientsplusstatusreceive -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 36.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 27 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 12 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 23 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 19 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: supportive care (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- supportive care (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 12 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 19 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 23 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 17.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 27 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 16028 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2919 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 88.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 36.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- methadone, remifentanil
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Perioperative Methadone Use to Decrease Opioid Requirement in Pediatric Spinal Fusion Patients NCT02558010 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
- Propofol + Remifentanil vs. Propofol + Dexmedetomidine in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis Patients Having Spine Surgery NCT06096181 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials terminated
- A Comparison of Ketamine Infusion Versus Placebo in Opioid Tolerant and Opioid Naive Patients After Spinal Fusion NCT03274453 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- Dosing of Methadone for Spine Surgery NCT03605901 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
- SSEP Fluctuations Due to Dexmedetomidine During Posterior Spine Fusion NCT03236727 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.