A Phase Ib Trial of MVA-EBNA1/LMP2 Vaccine in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2017-03-10, after 2013-03-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-03-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 33.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerchemotherapytherapysmallprior
Phrases that lowered it: vaccineopinioninvestigatorvaccinationclinical trial -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor's past trials: 18 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- not given (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not given (typical: randomized)
- Design
- not given (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- not given (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 18 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 33.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 6 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, infectious disease
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy of Recombinant Epstein-Barr Virus (EBV) Vaccine in Patients With Nasopharyngeal Cancer Who Had Residual EBV DNA Load After Conventional Therapy NCT01094405 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
- Pembrolizumab for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Patients With Detectable Plasma Epstein-Barr Virus DNA NCT03544099 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials terminated
- Trial Evaluating the Immunogenicity and Safety of an Adjuvanted Epstein-Barr Virus (EBV) Glycoprotein 350 Vaccine in EBV-seronegative Persons NCT05683834 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Safety and Immunogenicity of an Epstein-Barr Virus (EBV) gp350-Ferritin Nanoparticle Vaccine in Healthy Adults NCT04645147 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- Safety Study of Recombinant Listeria Monocytogenes(Lm)Based Vaccine Virus Vaccine to Treat Oropharyngeal Cancer NCT01598792 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.