AZD9291 First Time In Patients Ascending Dose Study

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: small cellcell lunglung cancernon smallnsclc
  Phrases that lowered it: agedclinicaldiseasespharmacokineticspatients
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 130 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 161 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1165 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 1 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• AZD9291 Versus Gefitinib or Erlotinib in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02296125 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• Phase II AZD9291 Open Label Study in NSCLC After Previous EGFR TKI Therapy in EGFR and T790M Mutation Positive Tumours NCT02094261 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• Study For Patients With NSCLC EGFR Mutations (Del 19 or L858R +/- T790M) NCT02349633 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
• Assessing an Oral Janus Kinase Inhibitor, AZD4205, in Combination With Osimertinib in Patients Who Have Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03450330 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• AZD9291 (Osimertinib) Versus Platinum-Based Doublet-Chemotherapy in Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02151981 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.