Phase IIb Safety and Efficacy Study of Different Oral Doses of BAY94-8862 in Subjects With Worsening Chronic Heart Failure and Left Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction and Either Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus With or Without Chronic Kidney Disease or Chronic Kidney Disease Alone

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-12-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartacutefailureventricularchronic
  Phrases that lowered it: type diabetesassessagedwith typeml
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 77 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 86.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 473 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 1336 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• BAY94-8862 Dose Finding Trial in Subjects With Chronic Heart Failure and Mild (Part A) or Moderate (Part B) Chronic Kidney Disease NCT01345656 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• Phase IIb Safety and Efficacy Study of BAY94-8862 in Subjects With Worsening Chronic Heart Failure and Left Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction and Either Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus With or Without Chronic Kidney Disease or Moderate Chronic Kidney Disease Alone NCT01955694 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• A Phase IIb Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Tolerability of Cinaciguat (150 µg/h, 100 µg/h, 50 µg/h) Given Intravenously to Subjects With Acute Decompensated Chronic Congestive Heart Failure (ADHF) NCT01064037 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated
• A Phase IIb Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Tolerability of Lower Doses Cinaciguat (25 µg/h, 10 µg/h) Given Intravenously to Patients With Acute Decompensated Chronic Congestive Heart Failure (ADHF) NCT01067859 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated
• Study to Assess the Safety of BAY1067197 in Stable Heart Failure Patients on Standard Therapy Including ß-blocker NCT01945606 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.