A Phase 1b Study of TAK-700 in Postmenopausal Women With Hormone-receptor Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-12-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patients mustgreatercanceror equalequal to
  Phrases that lowered it: escalationaminotransferasedosebreast cancerchronic hepatitis
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 59 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 174 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Orteronel as Monotherapy in Patients With Metastatic Breast Cancer (MBC) That Expresses the Androgen Receptor (AR) NCT01990209 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Phase I Open Label Dose Escalation Study to Investigate the Safety & Pharmacokinetics of AZD5312 in Patients With Androgen Receptor Tumors NCT02144051 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Orteronel (TAK-700) in Metastatic or Advanced Non-resectable Granulosa Cell Ovarian Tumors. The Greko II Study. NCT02101684 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• Enzalutamide in Patients With Androgen Receptor Positive (AR+) Ovarian, Primary Peritoneal or Fallopian Tube Cancer and One, Two or Three Prior Therapies NCT01974765 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• BI836845 Plus Enzalutamide in Castrate Resistant Prostate Cancer (CRPC) NCT02204072 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.