A Study of Neratinib Plus Capecitabine Versus Lapatinib Plus Capecitabine in Patients With HER2+ Metastatic Breast Cancer Who Have Received Two or More Prior HER2 Directed Regimens in the Metastatic Setting

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-12-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: her2breast cancermetastaticstagelapatinib
  Phrases that lowered it: parallelagedversuspatients whocontrolled
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 28911 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 16 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study Evaluating Neratinib Versus Lapatinib Plus Capecitabine For ErbB2 Positive Advanced Breast Cancer NCT00777101 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Study Evaluating Neratinib Plus Paclitaxel VS Trastuzumab Plus Paclitaxel In ErbB-2 Positive Advanced Breast Cancer NCT00915018 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• Chemotherapy and Lapatinib or Trastuzumab in Treating Women With HER2/Neu-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00667251 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Study Evaluating The Combination Of Neratinib And Capecitabine In Solid Tumors And Breast Cancer NCT00741260 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• A Study of Herceptin (Trastuzumab) in Combination With Xeloda (Capecitabine) in Patients With Metastatic or Recurrent HER2-positive Breast Cancer After First-Line or (Neo)Adjuvant Therapy. NCT01290718 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.