EMERALD: Effects of Metformin on Cardiovascular Function in Adolescents With Type 1 Diabetes
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (159 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2016-12-02, after 2013-03-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-12-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: heartdeterminehelpplaceboimprove
Phrases that lowered it: metformintwicewith typetype diabetesinsulin -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 74 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 12 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 14200 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 72904 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 63.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 131 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 12 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 21 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 131 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 74 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 72904 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 14200 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 63.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 7.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic, immunology, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- metformin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Contribution of Hyperinsulinemia vs. Hyperglycemia to Insulin Resistance in Type 1 Diabetes and Maturity Onset Diabetes of the Young, Type 2 (MODY2) NCT02971202 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Title: Therapeutic Targets in African-American Youth With Type 2 Diabetes NCT02960659 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
- Metformin Therapy for Overweight Adolescents With Type 1 Diabetes NCT01881828 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- Adjunctive Metformin Therapy in Double Diabetes NCT01334125 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Statins in Children With Type 1 Diabetes and Hypercholesterolemia NCT01236365 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.