A Phase I Study of Candidate Influenza Vaccines MVA-NP+M1 and ChAdOx1 NP+M1
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 2% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (340 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-11-30, after 2013-04-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: carcinomaeffectivecancersurgerysitu
Phrases that lowered it: healthyvaccinevaccinationinfluenzavolunteers -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 1.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 59 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 78 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 6 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 78 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 1.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 59 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study to Assess the Safety and Immunogenicity of a New Influenza Vaccine Candidate MVA-NP+M1 in Healthy Adults NCT00942071 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Immunogenicity, Safety and Tolerability of a Plant-Derived Seasonal Virus-Like-Particle Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine in Adults NCT02233816 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- A Study to Assess the Safety of HIV and Hep C Vaccine Candidates When Given Separately or in Combination NCT02362217 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Lot-to-lot Consistency of a Plant-Derived Quadrivalent Virus-Like Particles Influenza Vaccine in Healthy Adults NCT03321968 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
- Immunogenicity, Safety and Tolerability of a Plant-Derived Seasonal VLP Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine in the Elderly Population NCT02236052 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.