An Open-Label Phase 3 Study of BMN 165 for Adults With PKU Not Previously Treated w/ BMN 165

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-11-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: the subjectstablepriorto screeningdose of
  Phrases that lowered it: safetyparticipatebloodinvestigatordrug
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 22 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 10 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase 3 Study to Evaluate the Efficacy & Safety of Self-Administered Injections of BMN165 by Adults With PKU NCT01889862 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Safety and Tolerability of SYNB1618 in Healthy Adult Volunteers and Adult Subjects With Phenylketonuria NCT03516487 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Self Administered Injections of Pegvaliase (>40mg/Day Dose) in Adults With PKU NCT03694353 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of SYNB1934 in Patients With PKU (SYNPHENY-3) NCT05764239 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of SYNB1618 and SYNB1934 in Adult Patients With Phenylketonuria NCT04534842 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.