Birinapant With 5-azacitidine in MDS Subjects Who Are Naïve, Have Relapsed or Are Refractory to 5-azacitidine Therapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (1,462 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: myelodysplasticazacitidinemdspotential musttumors
  Phrases that lowered it: open labelsubjectsthe investigatorcombinationimpaired
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 50.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 12 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Azacitidine With or Without Birinapant in Subjects With MDS or CMMoL NCT02147873 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
• Phase I/II Trial to Investigate BI 836858 in Myelodysplastic Syndromes NCT02240706 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Sabatolimab in Combination With Azacitidine and Venetoclax in High or Very High Risk MDS Participants NCT04812548 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
• A Dose Exploration Study With Birabresib (MK-8628) in Participants With Selected Hematologic Malignancies (MK-8628-005) NCT02698189 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
• Idarubicin Combined to Azacitidine in Int-2 or High Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes NCT01305135 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.