A Phase 2/3 Open-label Extension Study to Evaluate Long-Term Safety and Efficacy With VX-509 in Subjects With Rheumatoid Arthritis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (370 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: term safetylong termcompletedextensionthe long
  Phrases that lowered it: subjectsto evaluatealcoholdrughistory
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 2.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 20 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 36 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 2/3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• 24-week Study With Open Label Extension of VX-509, an Oral JAK3 Inhibitor, in Subjects Taking Methotrexate NCT01590459 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• A 12-week Study of 4 Doses of VX-509 in Subjects With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01052194 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• A Magnetic Resonance Imaging Study and Arthroscopic Biopsy Substudy in Subjects With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis Receiving VX-509, an Oral JAK3 Inhibitor NCT01754935 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• A Long Term Safety Study of Mavrilimumab in Adult Subjects With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01712399 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated
• A Clinical Trial to Study the Effects of Revamilast in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01430507 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.