Trastuzumab & Pertuzumab Followed by T-DM1 in MBC

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-05-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerher2metastatictrastuzumabmetastases
  Phrases that lowered it: trialaccordingpatients withagedarea
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 44 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 6593 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 22952 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety Study in Subjects With Metastatic Breast Cancer Who Progressed After Taxanes Treatment. NCT01050322 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Study of Palbociclib and Trastuzumab With Endocrine Therapy in HER2-positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02448420 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Paclitaxel, Trastuzumab, and Pertuzumab in the Treatment of Metastatic HER2-Positive Breast Cancer NCT01276041 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Study of Standard Chemotherapy With Trastuzumab, Plus or Minus Pertuzumab, for Pre-treated Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02229149 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• Vinorelbine With Trastuzumab Emtansine in Pre-Treated HER2-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02658084 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.