Efficacy, Safety, Pharmacokinetics and Immunogenicity Study of Abatacept Administered Intravenously to Treat Active Polyarticular-course Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis in Japan

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-07-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 46.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: childrenactivemethotrexatebowelidiopathic
  Phrases that lowered it: have historyefficacyat screeningsubjectsages
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 111 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 17 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 4 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 393 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 2675 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pharmacokinetics, Efficacy and Safety of Abatacept Administered Subcutaneously (SC) in Children and Adolescents With Active Polyarticular Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis (pJIA) and Inadequate Response (IR) to Biologic or Non Biologic Disease Modifying Anti-rheumatic Drugs (DMARDs) NCT01844518 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Safety, Efficacy, and Pharmacokinetics of Adalimumab in Japanese Children With Juvenile Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT00690573 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Study Evaluating Etanercept in 3 Subtypes of Childhood Arthritis NCT00962741 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Pharmacokinetics, Efficacy and Safety of Intravenous Golimumab in Pediatric Participants With Active Polyarticular Course Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis Despite Methotrexate Therapy NCT02277444 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• Study to Measure Filgotinib in the Blood of Children and Teenagers With Arthritis Taking Filgotinib (SCALESIA) NCT06222034 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.