Phase 1 Multicenter, Single Ascending Dose Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Response of PE0139 Injection in Adult Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (816 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: insulintype diabetesmonths priorwith typecontraception
  Phrases that lowered it: singleadultrandomizedinhaledacting
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, PK and PD Response of PE0139 Injection in Adult Subjects With T2DM NCT02581657 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• Dose Escalation Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of REMD-477 in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT02455011 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Multiple Dose Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety and Pharmacodynamics of REMD-477 in Subjects With Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus NCT03117998 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Single-dose Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacodynamics of REMD-477 in Subjects With Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus NCT02715193 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• PF-06291874 Multiple Ascending Dose Study In Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients NCT01856595 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.