Iron in Congestive Heart Failure

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 38% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartventricularfailurefractionleft
  Phrases that lowered it: productsdosingadministeredthe pastpast months
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• EFfect of Ferric Carboxymaltose on exercIse CApacity and Cardiac Function in Patients With Iron deficiencY and Chronic Heart Failure NCT00821717 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
• Effect of Ferric Carboxymaltose on Exercise Capacity in Patients With Iron Deficiency and Chronic Heart Failure NCT01394562 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Effects of Iron Therapy in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction and Iron Deficiency (PREFER-HF) NCT03833336 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Ferric Carboxymaltose to Improve Skeletal Muscle Metabolism in Heart Failure Patients With Functional Iron Deficiency NCT03218384 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
• Randomized Placebo-controlled Trial of FCM as Treatment for Heart Failure With Iron Deficiency / and Sub-Study NCT03037931 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.