Probiotics in the Treatment of Irritable Bowel Syndrome

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (30 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: syndromesymptomsbowelstudyeffective in
  Phrases that lowered it: containingin treatmentpatientsbasedgastrointestinal
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 23 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, digestive: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 26 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Probiotics in the Treatment of Irritable Bowel Syndrome NCT01837485 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• The Effects of Laxative-probiotic Sequential Treatment in the Irritable Bowel Syndrome Patients NCT02254629 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Saccharomyces Boulardii in Irritable Bowel Syndrome NCT00589771 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Exploratory Clinical Study to Evaluate the Optimal Dosage of Mosapride and Probiotics in Irritable Bowel Syndrome Without Predominant Diarrhea NCT01505777 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Fecal Microbial Transplantation in Treatment of Irritable Bowel Syndrome; a Double Blinded Placebo Controlled Trial. NCT02154867 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.