Phase IIa Study Evaluating Safety and Efficacy of BL-8040 in Relapsed/Refractory AML Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-07-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: relapsedrefractoryleukemiachemotherapymg dl
  Phrases that lowered it: safetyhematological2040efficacy
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 31.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Assess OPB-31121 in Advanced Leukemias or Myelodysplastic Syndromes NCT01029509 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
• Study of Ibrutinib in Subjects With Acute Myeloid Leukemia NCT02351037 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
• CPX-351+GO in Subjects 55 Years Old, or Older, With AML NCT03878927 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate Safety and Tolerability of CC-91633 (BMS-986397) in Participants With Relapsed or Refractory Acute Myeloid Leukemia or Relapsed or Refractory Higher-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes NCT04951778 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials terminated
• A Study of PLX2853 in Relapsed or Refractory Acute Myeloid Leukemia or High Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome NCT03787498 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.