A Study to Compare CAELYX With Topotecan HCL in Patients With Recurrent Epithelial Ovarian Carcinoma Following Failure of First-Line, Platinum-Based Chemotherapy
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 20% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2014-08-31, after 2013-06-30 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: platinumcellchemotherapycarcinomarecurrent
Phrases that lowered it: participantsubjectsparticipantscomparefunction -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 18 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 10 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 18 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 4 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 21129 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4123 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 96.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 23.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- doxorubicin, topotecan
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy of Topotecan and Lapatinib in Early Recurrent Ovarian or Peritoneal Cancer NCT00888810 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials terminated
- Topotecan With Erlotinib for Topotecan Pretreated Ovarian Cancer NCT01003938 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
- Belotecan Versus Topotecan for Recurrent Ovarian Cancer: A Randomized, Open-label, Parallel-group Phase IIb Trial NCT01630018 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
- Carboplatin and Topotecan in Treating Patients With Relapsed or Metastatic Cervical Cancer NCT00807079 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
- Trial of High Dose Topotecan With Carboplatin in Patients With Relapsed Ovarian Carcinoma NCT01177501 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.