Carfilzomib and Melphalan Before Stem Cell Transplant in Treating Patients With Multiple Myeloma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 24% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-10-28, after 2013-06-04 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-10-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: stemdlventricularheartprior to
Phrases that lowered it: myelomaimmunoglobulinbloodparticipantshcv -
Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 169 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 33.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 429 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 1197 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 429 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 14.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 169 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 4 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 5765 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1197 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 97.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 33.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, cardiovascular, immunology, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- alanine, carfilzomib, melphalan, phenylalanine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Bortezomib, Melphalan, and Total-Body Irradiation Before Stem Cell Transplant in Treating Patients With Multiple Myeloma NCT01936090 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
- Carfilzomib + High Dose Melphalan as Preparative Regimen for Autologous Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation NCT01690143 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
- Busulfan, Melphalan, and Bortezomib Before First-Line Stem Cell Transplant in Treating Patients With Multiple Myeloma NCT01605032 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
- Phase I: Melphalan, Bendamustine and Carfilzomib for Autologous Transplant in Multiple Myeloma NCT02148913 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
- Carfilzomib, Bendamustine Hydrochloride, and Dexamethasone in Treating Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT02095834 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.