Alisertib, Abiraterone Acetate and Prednisone in Treating Patients With Hormone-Resistant Prostate Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-06-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ulnchemotherapycancerboweldl
  Phrases that lowered it: prostatepatientsclinicalabirateronepsa
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 30.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 15909 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 65059 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 20 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 76.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 1 Study of Alisertib Participants With Advanced Solid Tumors Including Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer Receiving a Standard Docetaxel Regimen NCT01094288 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Alisertib and Fulvestrant in Treating Patients With Hormone Receptor Positive Breast Cancer That is Metastatic or Locally Advanced and Cannot Be Removed by Surgery NCT02219789 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• Alisertib and Pembrolizumab for the Treatment of Patients With Rb-deficient Head and Neck Squamous Cell Cancer NCT04555837 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• A Phase I Study of Alisertib + R-EPOCH for Treatment of Myc-Positive Aggressive B-cell Lymphomas NCT02700022 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated
• Alisertib (MLN8237) in Combination With Weekly Paclitaxel in East Asian Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors NCT02367352 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.