Efficacy/Safety Study of Valsartan and Chlorthalidone Conjugate Treatment Compared to Simple Treatment for Hypertension

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: equal toor equalcontrolledgreaterdefined
  Phrases that lowered it: combinationpatientsand safetyefficacy andmmhg
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 45220 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 8254 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 78.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Valsartan/Amlodipine in Patients With Mild to Moderate Essential Hypertension NCT01001572 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Efficacy/Safety of Cilnidipine Plus Valsartan Versus Valsartan in Patients With Hypertension NCT02145104 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Candesartan Cilexetil + Chlorthalidone + Amlodipine Versus Exforge HCT®️ for Systemic Arterial Hypertension NCT05920005 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• 26-week Open Study of telmisartan40mg+amlodipine10mg or telmisartan80mg+amlodipine10 mg in Hypertension NCT00624052 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Losartan/Chlorthalidone vs Losartan/Hydrochlorothiazide in Essential Arterial Hypertension NCT04927299 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.