LUX-Head&Neck 3: Afatinib (BIBW2992) Versus Methotrexate for the Treatment of Recurrent and/or Metastatic Head and Neck Squamous Cell Cancer After Platinum Based Chemotherapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-10-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationsubjectmyocardialheartmethotrexate
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andsafety ofthe efficacyjudged
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 60.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 133 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 185 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 17252 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 89501 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Afatinib and Pembrolizumab for Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (ALPHA Study) NCT03695510 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• A Comparative Study of Efficacy and Safety of RPH-002 and Erbitux® in Unresectable Metastatic or Recurrent Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT07435324 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Potential Benefit of the Addition of BYL719 to Paclitaxel in the Treatment of Breast Cancer and Head-and-neck Cancer NCT02051751 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• Study Comparing Pembrolizumab With Methotrexate in Elderly, Frail or Cisplatin-ineligible Patients With Head and Neck Cancers NCT03193931 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated
• A Phase I Comparative Study of Pharmacokinetics, Safety, and Efficacy of RPH-002 and Erbitux® in Unresectable Metastatic or Recurrent Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT07435311 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.