A Study of Palbociclib in Addition to Standard Endocrine Treatment in Hormone Receptor Positive Her2 Normal Patients With Residual Disease After Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy and Surgery

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-12-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationsurgerychronicacutecell
  Phrases that lowered it: breast cancerrelevanther2hormoneaccording
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 85.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 13 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• PALbociclib Rechallenge in horMone Receptor-posItive/HER2- Negative Advanced Breast Cancer (PALMIRA) NCT03809988 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant Letrozole and Palbociclib in Patients With Stage II-IIIB Breast Cancer, HR+, HER2 - NCT03819010 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Cabazitaxel Versus Weekly Paclitaxel as Neo-adjuvant Treatment in Patients With Triple Negative or Luminal B/HER2 Normal BC (GENEVIEVE) NCT01779479 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Neo-Adjuvant Treatment With Palbociclib: Effect on Ki67 and Apoptosis Before, During and After Treatment NCT02530424 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Addition of Carboplatin to Neoadjuvant Therapy for Triple-negative and HER2-positive Early Breast Cancer NCT01426880 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.