R-CHOP + R-HAD vs R-CHOP Followed by Maintenance Lenalidomide + Rituximab vs Rituximab for Older Patients With MCL

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationlymphomarituximabsubject hascarcinoma
  Phrases that lowered it: lenalidomidemellitusdiabetesefficacylaboratory
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 31.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 11 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 61422 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 15380 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Sequential Chemotherapy and Lenalidomide Followed by Rituximab and Lenalidomide Maintenance for Untreated Mantle Cell Lymphoma NCT02633137 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Lenalidomide Plus Rituxan for Untreated Mantle Cell Lymphoma NCT01472562 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy of Lenalidomide as Maintenance Therapy After Completion of First-line Combination Chemotherapy in Patients With Mantle Cell Lymphoma (MCL). NCT01021423 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials terminated
• Salvage Treatment With Lenalidomide and Dexamethaosne (LEN-DEX) in Patients With Relapsed/Refractory Mantle Cell Lymphoma (MCL) NCT00786851 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• Study of Lenalidomide Maintenance Versus Placebo in Responding Elderly Patients With DLBCL and Treated With R-CHOP NCT01122472 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.