A Phase I/IIa AERAS-456 in HIV-Negative Adults With & Without Latent Tuberculosis Infection (C-035-456)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 4% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (96 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-11-30, after 2013-08-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: priorrandomizationto administrationthe timefollowing criteria
Phrases that lowered it: vaccinevaccinationhealthyimmunogenicityhiv -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 9 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 6 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 50 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 9 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety and Immunogenicity Study of AERAS-456 Vaccine for Tuberculosis NCT01967134 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- A Phase I Study to Evaluate Safety and Immunogenicity of AERAS 404 (C-011-404) NCT02109874 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
- A Study for Safety and Immunogenicity of BCG and AERAS-404 in HIV-Negative, TB-Negative, BCG-Naive Adults NCT02420444 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- A Phase I Study to Evaluate Safety and Immunogenicity of AERAS 404 Administered in Adults NCT02074956 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- A Leukapheresis Study for Immune Responses in Healthy US Adults Who Receive BCG Vaccination Followed by Boosting With AERAS-402 NCT02375256 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.