Combination Study of Deferasirox and Erythropoietin in Patients With Low- and Int-1-risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 25% of the time (96 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-04-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: failuremarrowpatientsuncontrolledsyndrome
  Phrases that lowered it: effecthad receivedtrialdiseasesinvestigator
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 30.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 600 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 14 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 310 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 86.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluating Low-dose Deferasirox (DFX) in Patients With Low-risk MDS Resistant or Relapsing After ESA Agents NCT03387475 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS) Event Free Survival With Iron Chelation Therapy Study NCT00940602 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Azacitidine Plus Deferasirox (ICL670) in Higher Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS) NCT02038816 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials terminated
• Effect of Deferiprone on Oxidative-Stress and Iron-Overload in Low Risk Transfusion-Dependent MDS Patients NCT02477631 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• Deferasirox in Treating Patients With Very Low, Low, or Intermediate-Risk Red Blood Cell Transfusion Dependent Anemia or Myelodysplastic Syndrome NCT02943668 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.