Feasibility Study of IV Recombinant Tissue Plasminogen Activator (rtPA) vs. Primary Endovascular Therapy for Acute Ischemic Stroke

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ischemicstrokearterytherapyct
  Phrases that lowered it: m2distributionhistorysafety14
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 154 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 402 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Endovascular Treatment With Versus Without Intravenous rhTNK-tPA in Stroke NCT04733742 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• Endovascular Thrombectomy Alone Versus Intravenous Thrombolysis Plus Thrombectomy on Acute Basilar Artery Occlusion NCT05827042 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Intravenous Tenecteplase Plus EVT Versus EVT Alone on 4.5 to 24 Hours After Basilar Artery Occlusion NCT05701956 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Intra-arterial Versus Systemic Thrombolysis for Acute Ischemic Stroke NCT00640367 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Extending the Time for Thrombolysis in Emergency Neurological Deficits NCT00887328 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.